Hello Gauchos! It was great to have a full house at our first meeting! We appreciate everyone who was able to attend and look forward to seeing you at our next meeting TODAY.

Below you'll find:

• MEETING TODAY at 10/05 from 5:30pm - 6:30pm at Mosher Alumni House!!

• Come join or weekend market calls, link below.

• Last weeks market performance

• News that moved the markets

• An outlook on this weeks earnings

• Finding your next summer internship

News that moved that markets

Federal Reserve Raises Rates .75 Point, Says More Hikes Coming: Federal Reserve officials say they expect to keep fighting inflation with more interest-rate increases, rising to more than 4.25% by year’s end.

World Bank Cuts China Growth Forecast as Covid-19, Real-Estate Crunch Take Toll: Emerging economies in Asia are seen outpacing China for the first time since 1990

2-year Treasury yield rose above 4% for the first time since 2007, the 10-year yield hit an 11-year high.

Earnings

McCormick & Company ($MKC): McCormick & Company, Incorporated is expected* to report earnings on 10/06/2022 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Aug 2022. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 4 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.65. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.8.

Levi Strauss & Co ($LEVI): Levi Strauss & Co is expected* to report earnings on 10/06/2022 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Aug 2022. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 5 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.37. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.48.

Economic Data Recap

Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence, up nearly 6 points to 103.2 in August, far exceeded expectations but remained very soft. September's consensus is for further improvement to 104.3.

New Home Sales: New home sales have collapsed, falling to an annualized rate of 511,000 in July for a nearly 30 percent decline from July last year. No bounce back is expected for August, at a consensus of 498,000. This report has missed expectations substantially in the last two reports.

Upcoming Economic Data

GDP: The third estimate of second-quarter GDP, at a minus 0.6 percent consensus, is expected to show no change from the second estimate. Personal consumption expenditures, at 1.5 percent growth in the second estimate, is also expected to match the second estimate.

Intro to our Weekend Market Call

In this edition of the weekly newsletter, due to popular demand we are replacing the Opinion Article with a small article covering an introduction to our weekend market calls.

If you wish to read our previously published opinion articles, you can find them here.

How it works: As a group on Sundays we discuss the market price action and data that was released the past week. The data could include economic data sets or company earnings which play a huge role in building up an investor's macro theory on the markets. One way to look at it would be doing your homework and recapping all the topics covered in class this past week. This collaborative environment allows you to bounce ideas off one another while keeping up to date with important weekly market news. Our running plan is to meet via zoom for the first two meetings, with an ultimate goal of transitioning to in person meetings.

So what did we look at this past week? We discussed the Consumer confidence number and the new home sales to get a better gauge of the consumers and their spending habits. One would expect the numbers to be disappointing with all the hawkishness in the markets but that is exactly why you need to keep track of these numbers on a weekly/monthly basis. Looking back at the track record we realized that new home sales numbers can be very volatile, therefore we have to remain cautious when considering its weight and implications on our current market outlook and standings.

On the price action front, we discussed the technical and fundamental levels of the S&P 500 as we tested previous June lows. Talking out possible case scenarios for S&P 500, we believed that the market could possibly witness a temporary bounce if it holds the lows and is supplemented by strong seasonality in the markets around midterm elections. However, looking forward a lot depends on uncertainty with the upcoming earnings seasons, new economic data, and prevailing geopolitical news.

Additionally we discussed hypothetical paths the Federal Reserve could take if we continued to see rising interest rates to reach their target fund rate. Or how they would navigate the pivot towards lowering rates, which can have a huge impact on the markets and the economy.

We understand some of these topics might be hard for you to understand depending on your experience and knowledge, but that is totally fine. As investors we feel that we spend a lot of time reading or watching the news but seldom take time to process our own thoughts and understandings. The idea of holding these meetings is to create a friendly environment to discuss and talk about ideas without being judged, as we all know, collaboration of minds often leads to great outcomes.

If you are interested in attending this event, please fill out this form.

Sincerely,

Ishan Gondara and Abe Cervantes

Meetings and Events!!

MEETING TODAY on 10/05 from 5:30 pm - 6:30 pm at Mosher Alumni House!!

Job Openings (because you are -99.69% YTD)

MEMES

https://ucsb.joinhandshake.com/stu/events/1103841?ref=virtual_group_events